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Coronavirus Death Rate by age Group, What are the chances of dying?

Coronavirus Death Rate by age Group, What are the chances of dying?

Across the globe, researchers are trying to expand their understanding about the rapid spread of the pandemic, featuring COVID-19 death rate which has taken an ever-larger toll across the world and made everyone at the greater risk of infections, serious illness, and death which early in the year was only reported in China and now is in every part of the country.

In general, United States mimics the larger risk experienced by China with the serious death risk from COVID-19 rising from age but an analysis done by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an underlying message that puts an emphasis on the non-invincibility of millennial. According to the new data shown by them, to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit. Still, the most severe cases and the highest rates of death are experienced among the elderly. CDC experts concluded that although 17% of the U.S. population is 65 or older, 31% of cases were in that age group.

AGE Number of Deaths Share of deaths With underlying conditions Without underlying conditions Unknown if with underlying cond. Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.
0 – 17 years old 3 0.04% 3 0 0 0%
18 – 44 years old 309 4.5% 244 25 40 1.0%
45 – 64 years old 1,581 23.1% 1,343 59 179 3.5%
65 – 74 years old 1,683 24.6% 1,272 26 385 6.0%
75+ years old 3,263 47.7% 2,289 27 947 14.2%
TOTAL 6,839 100% 5,151 137 1,551 24.68%

Elders have more chances of being affected an infected than the younger ones such as by living in nursing homes, which is considered unlikely since younger adults encounter many others at work and school. This truly suggests the underlying biological vulnerability which probably exacerbates by preexisting illnesses and sharply raises the risk of both infection and serious illness.

When it comes to the COVID-19 death rate, nobody is lesser in terms of risk as anyone can be effected but different people have different risks of getting severe symptoms which usually require hospitalization or sometimes the most intensive care as chances from dying across COVID-19 vary across the age groups.

The important stats on our youngest:

  • In Spain (with 28,600 total cases as of March 21, nearly as many as America’s 31,000), 34 out of the 129 cases among children 0 to 9 years old resulted in hospitalization, a rate of 26 %; one child was put in the ICU (a 0.8 % rate), and there have been no fatalities.
  • Across Italy, South Korea, and China, there have so far been no reported fatalities among children under 10 years old, according to data compiled from public sources.
  • In the United States, there are no death cases reported in the recent month among the people under the age of 20, only a small %age, 1.6% had been hospitalized?

So far, according to the provided data, kids are not uniquely under the COVID-19 risk, which seems surprising as well as relief. The study showed that about 30 % of childhood Covid-19 cases deemed “severe” and more than half of Covid-19 cases deemed “critical” were among children less than 1-year-old. Though the overall numbers were small, 7 infants had a critical illness and 33 suffered a severe illness, it did show that younger children faced a higher likelihood of more dangerous outcomes. The other complication is that these younger people could still spread the disease to older generations, who are more at risk of critical illness.

Bottom Line:

Hence, we can conclude that the infants appear more vulnerable to COVID-19 than toddlers and elementary school kids, and overall, only a small number of children require hospitalization and nursing.

The important stats on adolescents and just-turned-adults:

  • In Spain, out of 221 cases for people 10 to 19, 15 of them have been hospitalized, a 7 % rate; none have ended up in intensive care. One person in this age range has died, a 0.4 % fatality rate.
  • China reports that 0.2 % of cases for these young people end in death.
  • In the US, there had been no ICU admittances or deaths reported among people under 20 as of late last week; only a small %age (1.6 %) had been hospitalized.

Similar to the older generation, the younger ones, if they are provided with the medical conditions, add to their vulnerability but if the provided medical conditions are absent, the risk would also be at the peak.

Bottom line:

Teenagers might depict more resistance than the younger ones, there will be less hospitalized cases and ICIU rates but this does not mean there is no risk, a small risk of serious complication and death might occur.

The important stats on young adults:

  • In Spain, out of 1,285 cases for people 20 to 29, 183 of them have been hospitalized, a 14 % rate; eight have ended up in intensive care, a 0.6 % rate and four people in this age range have died, a 0.3 % fatality rate.
  • Italy and South Korea have reported no fatalities for this group; China reports that 0.2 % of cases for these young people end in death.
  • The CDC covers a huge 20-44 age range in its data, but here’s what we know about that entire group: 14.3 % hospitalized, 2 % in the ICU, and 0.1 % fatality rate.

Bottom line:

A higher hospitalization rate is seen in young adults as compared to the teen who are just directly behind them in age.  Most of them are kept in ICU due to their critical situation. Although the fatality rate in these people is low but many of them still become prey to the disease.

The important stats on this working-age population:

  • In Spain, out of 5,127 cases from this cohort, 1,028 people have been hospitalized, a 20 % rate; 55 went to the ICU, a 1.1 % rate; and 12 people ages 30 to 49 have died, a 0.2 % fatality rate.
  • Italy (0.3 % death rate), China (0.2 %), and South Korea (0.1 %) have reported deaths in this age range.
  • As mentioned above, the CDC covers one huge 20-44 age range in its report, but here’s what we know about that group: 14.3 % hospitalized, 2 % in the ICU, and 0.1 % fatality rate.
  • For people 45 to 54, the CDC reports 21.2 % have been hospitalized, 5.4 % were put in the ICU, and 0.5 % have died.

As the number is becoming too abstract, Jeffrey Ghazarian’s story is a sad warning for this population. Ghazarian was a 34-year-old guy who lived near Los Angeles and he is one of those who could not bear the disease and die from Covid-19 after five days on a ventilator. He was a cancer survivor and this became the big reason for his death as this disease is most dangerous to those people who are facing any disease or have beaten before but still their immune system is weak.

Bottom line:

A great number of people are being hospitalized for this demographic. The final number from those of the CDC is an excellent example of how the risk rate varies in these people. Those who are more hospitalized and need intensive care and death seem to increase in the age group varies between the ages of 40 to 50. The same trend is seen in Spain as well. 17 % of hospitalized people are for ages 30 to 39 and 23 % ranges from 40 to 49.

The important stats on the people entering their golden years:

  • In Spain, out of 6,045 cases from this cohort, 2,166 people have been hospitalized, a 36 % hospitalization rate; 221 went to the ICU, a 3.7 % rate; and 83 people ages 50 to 69 have died, a 1.4 % fatality rate.
  • Taken collectively, Italy, China, and South Korea have reported fatality rates from 0.4 % up to 3.6 % for people in this group.
  • For people 45 to 54, the CDC reports 21.2 % have been hospitalized, 5.4 % were put in the ICU, and 0.5 % have died. For people 55 to 64, 20.5 % have been hospitalized, 4.7 % ended up in the ICU, and 1.4 % died. For the oldest folks in this group, ages 65 to 74, hospitalizations (28.6 %), ICU stays (8.1 %), and deaths (2.7 %) continue to trend upward.

For the people who are above 50, the risk of developing the disease is very high compared to those who are younger than them. This is not only because of their age but also any preexisting disease that they had gone through. Almost half of America ages 55 to 64 and all have been already suffering from diseases so when an unknown pathogen strikes, those people immune system cannot bear as the longer we live the more our cells replicate improperly and they, in turn, destroy the whole organ by rupturing the nearby cells. This puts the older people at a higher risk of catching diseases like cancer, diabetes, etc. when the body is already fighting with these diseases it became difficult for it to ward off the infection. In short, it is not only the age factor for the severity of the disease it is actually the preexisting diseases that lead to chronic situations.

Bottom line:

All of these people are in a higher risk category. Even though a minority are being hospitalized and a handful of people like ten out of hundred died. But still, the danger exists if they have cardiovascular problems, diabetes, or a cancer diagnosis.

The important stats on older individuals:

  • In Spain, out of 6,152 cases from this group, 3,388 people have been hospitalized, a 55% hospitalization rate; 199 went to the ICU, a 3.2% rate; and 705 people ages 70 and older have died, an 11.4 % fatality rate.
  • Italy, China, and South Korea have reported fatality rates from 6.2% up to 20.2% for people in this age range.
  • I’ll use the 75-and-older numbers from the CDC: For ages 75 to 84, hospitalizations (30.5%), ICU stays (10.5%), and deaths (4.3%) are already high, and the key metrics go up even higher for people 85 and older; 31.3 % hospitalized, 6.3% in the ICU, 10.4 % fatality rate.

These people are at the highest risk of developing the disease and ICU stays are very lower as the disease spread so quickly that they don’t even have the opportunity of intensive care.

Bottom line:

As it is understood that this disease affects older people most so the people in this age group are more likely to show the critical symptoms and ultimately die due to this pandemic.

*Death Rate = (number of deaths/number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%) depending on the age group and the above-shown %age does not represent a share of deaths by age group, rather, it represents a person in a given age group, dying with COVID-19.

The elderly and the unwell are more prone to death if they contract coronavirus as the death rate is almost higher than the average for those who are over 80 and much lower for those who are under 40.

Sometimes even the people with the age above 80 develop the very mild and moderate disease and sometimes the younger ones are susceptible to it as there are some young people who have ended up I intensive care. Hence, it’s not the age that matters as everyone can develop a risk of infections. In the first big analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, deaths were at least five times more common among confirmed cases with diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart or breathing problems. All these factors play a clear contribution and interact indirectly somehow but we don’t have a clear and complete picture yet, as the risk for every type of person in every location is different, even though patterns in the death rates among confirmed cases can tell us who is most at risk, they can’t tell us about the precise risk in any single group.

The majority of the cases of COVID-19 go unrecognized as people tend not to pay any visit to a doctor with mild symptoms. On 17 March, the chief scientific adviser for the UK, Sir Patrick Vallance, estimated there were about 55,000 cases in the UK when the confirmed case count was just under 2,000. This appears to be the biggest reason why the death rates among confirmed cases are an unclear estimate of the true death rates and are overestimated by the missing cases.

Public health experts have seemed exasperated by the social media images of younger Americans who continue to socialize or even take a spring break vacation, worried that the perception a young person has little to fear from the coronavirus has given them a false sense of security.

To be clear, nobody should feel invulnerable to the coronavirus. Young people are going to contract the disease, a not-insignificant %age of them are going to get very sick, and a smaller number will die. The rates of severe and deadly cases might not be nearly as high as the older generations that we are worried about, but the data already show that age alone does not make you invincible.

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